World Cup final betting trends

Four years ago in the World Cup final France beat Croatia 4-2. There were six goals, both teams scored, one twice as often as the other, and all inside 90 minutes. Was this an aberration, a one-off event at odds with others in the recent past – or was it the beginning of a new era?

It will be the 22nd World Cup final. Okay, the last game in 1950 technically was not a final, but it decided who would get the trophy, other chroniclers speak of it as a final, and we will too.

The history of the World Cup final can be told in three chapters. The first chapter lasts from 1930 until 1962, the second from 1966 until 1986 and the third from 1990 until 2014.

In the first period there were lots of goals and little extra time. In the second period there were fewer goals and more extra time. In the third period there were hardly any goals, loads of extra time, and some penalty shootouts too.

Between 1930 and 1962 there were 4.7 goals per game in normal time of World Cup finals, with 17 per cent of eligible games going to extra time. Between 1966 and 1986 there were 3.8 goals per game in normal time, with 33 per cent of games going to extra time. Between 1990 and 2014 there were just 1.1 goals per game in normal time, 57 per cent of games went to extra time – and 29 per cent were decided by a penalty shootout.

In the 1990 final, West Germany beat Argentina 1-0 with an 85th minute Andreas Brehme penalty. It was the first time the runners-up had not scored. In the 13 previous finals – seven between 1930 and 1962, six more between 1966 and 1986 – both teams had scored.

Only once in the seven finals between 1990 and 2014 would both teams score. That was in 2006 when Italy beat France after extra time in a penalty shootout, the same method by which Italy had lost to Brazil in 1994.

Between 1990 and 2014 in normal time there were three goalless draws, one game with one goal, two games with two goals and another game with three goals.